Taiwan’s real gross domestic product is expected to rise 2.45 percent in 2019, lower than the forecast of 2.64 percent for this year due to projected slower global economic growth momentum, according to Academia Sinica Dec. 5.

Taipei City-based AS, the nation’s foremost research organization, attributed the drop to factors including fallout from the U.S.-China trade dispute, a slowdown in Chinese demand, the diminishing effects of the U.S. tax cuts and the tightening of international financial markets.
 
Real exports and imports of goods and services are expected to increase 3.11 percent and 3.01 percent, respectively, lower than the growth figures of 3.55 percent and 4.81 percent for 2018, owing to global market uncertainties and a higher comparison base.
 
Private investment is projected to fare better with a gain of 4.31 percent, up from 3.17 percent this year. This is due to higher business sector confidence in government efforts to attract back foreign-based Taiwan firms, promote infrastructure development and remove investment barriers, according to AS.
 
While the weaker economic forecast may dampen consumer confidence, the institution estimated private consumption will rise by 2.26 percent, up from 2.16 percent in 2018, as a result of higher salary levels set to take effect from the beginning of next year.
 
Given the limited room for further increases in the global prices of oil and raw materials, inflation is expected to drop to 1.08 percent from 1.49 percent this year, while the unemployment rate is set to remain stable at about 3.7 percent.
 
This 2019 GDP forecast is the most optimistic presented to date by a local research organization. The Cabinet-level Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics predicts growth of 2.41 percent; Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, 2.18 percent; and Taiwan Institute of Economic Research, 2.20 percent. (SFC-E)
 
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